IMS Lowers Pharmaceutical Market Forecast

Global market research firm IMS Health issued a disappointing report last week regarding the state of the pharmaceutical market. The world pharmaceutical market is now forecast to grow 2.5–3.5% this year to $750 billion, two percentage points lower than predicted last fall (which called for an estimated $820 billion), according to an IMS Health release. US pharmaceutical sales are likely to drop by 1–2% in 2009 with an essentially flat five-year compound annual growth rate (CAGR), while other developed markets (Japan, France, Germany, Italy, Spain, Canada, and the United Kingdom) will experience a CAGR of 1–4% during the next five years. The worldwide financial crisis is the primary culprit.

Looking ahead, IMS predicts a rebound in 2010, but even then, expiring patents in 2011 and 2012 may curb sales growth, according to the release. As a result, the expected global CAGR for the pharmaceutical market through 2013 is 3–6%.

There is better news for the pharmerging markets (Brazil, Russia, India, China, Mexico, South Korea, and Turkey). IMS predicts that these countries’ pharmaceutical markets will grow 13–16% through 2013, ultimately contributing “more than half of the global market’s growth in 2009 and sustaining an average 40% contribution through 2013.”

Where should developed countries turn next to keep their pharmaceutical markets strong? IMS points to innovative treatments in biologics and new chemicals, and especially specialty products. There are potentially 6–10 new blockbusters to be launched this year and in 2010, reports the firm.